Showing posts with label crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label crisis. Show all posts

Monday, 31 December 2012

UPDATE 3-Oil ends record year focused on US budget crisis

* U.S. budget deadline looms, capping asset prices

* Brent crude oil heads for record annual average over $111.65

* Fourth straight yearly gain after 2011 record of $110.91

* U.S. crude 2012 average at $94/bbl vs $95.11 in 2011

* Coming Up: U.S. Congress resumes 11th-hour fiscal talks (Updates throughout, changes dateline, previous SINGAPORE)

By Christopher Johnson

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil slipped towards $110 per barrel on Monday on worries U.S. lawmakers may not reach a last-minute deal to prevent a fiscal crisis, although remained on track to post a record annual average price.

Brent has averaged more than $111.65 this year, its fourth successive year of annual rises and above the previous record of $110.91 in 2011.

High oil prices have given oil producer cartel OPEC a bonanza, with oil export revenues hitting a peak of $1,052 billion, up 2.5 per cent from last year, U.S. government data showed.

But asset markets are worried the United States may fail to produce a workable budget deal, triggering a mandatory "fiscal cliff" of sharp spending cuts and higher taxes for all Americans.

Failure to agree on a budget would risk plunging the U.S. economy into recession, and the lack of a deal with the deadline just hours away kept a ceiling on the prices of riskier assets, including oil.

Brent crude was down 40 cents to $110.22 a barrel by 0950 GMT after hitting a low of $110.02 earlier in the session. U.S. crude slipped 10 cents at $90.70.

"The negative consequences of the fiscal cliff appear to be too large to ignore, and overtures from both political parties have been increasing," Jason Schenker, president of U.S. consultancy Prestige Economics, said.

"Significant market moves are likely when the deal gets done - or if no deal is done before the year-end ... In any case, neither outcome is fully priced in."

EXCEPTIONAL YEAR

Commodities found some support from economic data in China, the world's second-largest economy and crude oil consumer, where factory activity expanded at its fastest rate in December since May 2011, reinforcing signs of a recovery.

But slow economic growth and ample supplies are expected to keep a lid on prices next year, with crude prices gradually slipping. Brent crude will average at $108 a barrel in 2013, a Reuters monthly survey of 26 analysts showed.

Supply is increasing, with the United States pumping the most oil in 19 years after shale oil discovery pushed production to nearly 7 million barrels per day. U.S. crude imports slipped to the lowest in 12 years.

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia expects production increases by other oil producers to weigh on energy prices in 2013, potentially cutting into its fiscal surplus.

Saudi Finance Minister Ibrahim Alassaf said on Saturday the kingdom ran a budget surplus of 387 billion riyals ($103.2 billion) in 2012 as high energy prices and strong output levels generated revenue of 1.24 trillion riyals.

"The results of this year are exceptional," Alassaf told Al-Arabiya television, but added, "The international conditions and the increase in production by some states (in 2013) will have negative effects on prices."

Political tensions in the Middle East, meanwhile, are expected to underpin oil prices.

On Friday, Iran started six days of naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and gas shipping route, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iran has previously threatened to disrupt or close the waterway if its nuclear sites are subjected to military attack by Israel or the United States. (Additional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Jane Baird)


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Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Brent above $108 on hopes of US budget crisis resolution

* U.S. crude stocks drop, oil products mixed last week -API

* Global shares, euro rally on hopes for U.S. budget deal

* Brent approaching resistance at $109.02/bbl - technicals

* Coming up: EIA weekly oil inventories at 1530 GMT

By Manash Goswami and Florence Tan

SINGAPORE Dec 19 (Reuters) - Brent futures held steady above $108 a barrel on Wednesday, tracking a rally in most other risk assets on expectations a budget crisis in the United States will be resolved, saving the world's top oil consumer from slipping into recession.

Asian shares rose, following a rally in U.S. equities, and the euro hovered around multi-month highs on growing investor confidence of an agreement on spending and taxes between the White House and Republicans before the year-end deadline. Oil may get additional support if U.S. inventory data is close to that of an industry group that showed a sharp drawdown.

Brent crude slipped 1 cent to $108.83 a barrel by 0150 GMT, after settling $1.20 higher. U.S. oil slipped 2 cents to $87.91, after ending 73 cents higher and breaking above the 50-day moving average of $87.64.

"There is more upside potential for Brent because of a revival in the overall economic outlook," said Yusuke Seta, a commodities sales manager at Newedge Japan.

"Supporting factors are prevailing over negative factors."

Political manoeuvring intensified over an agreement to keep the U.S. economy from tumbling off the "fiscal cliff" next year as Republicans tried to wring more tax-rate concessions out of the White House on Tuesday.

Brent is approaching a resistance at $109.02 per barrel, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. U.S. oil faces a resistance zone of $88.28-$88.37 and is expected to retrace to $86.80, he said.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to Dec. 14 as imports dropped and refined product stocks were mixed as processing rates rose.

Crude stocks fell by 4.1 million barrels against a forecast 1.1 million barrel drawdown in a Reuters poll. Gasoline stockpiles across the country rose by 4.2 million barrels last week compared with an expectation of a 1.8 million barrel build. Investors are now awaiting inventory data due later in the day from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

"Oil may get additional support if the U.S. government data on stockpiles confirm what the industry data API has said," Newedge's Seta said. (Reporting by Manash Goswami; Editing by Ed Davies)


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UPDATE 1-Brent nears $109 on hopes of US budget crisis resolution

* U.S. crude stocks drop, oil products mixed last week -API

* Global shares, euro rally on hopes for U.S. budget deal

* Brent approaching resistance at $109.02/bbl -technicals

* Coming Up: EIA weekly oil inventories; 1530 GMT (Adds quotes, U.S. oil products, Iran, updates prices)

By Manash Goswami and Florence Tan

SINGAPORE Dec 19 (Reuters) - Brent futures edged up near $109 a barrel on Wednesday, tracking a rally in most other risk assets on expectations that a budget crisis in the United States will be resolved, saving the world's top oil consumer from slipping into recession.

Asian shares rose, following a rally in U.S. equities, and the euro hovered around multi-month highs on growing investor confidence for a U.S. pact on spending and taxes before a year-end deadline. Oil may get additional support if U.S. inventory data is close to that of an industry group that showed a sharp drawdown.

Brent crude edged up 11 cents to $108.95 a barrel by 0452 GMT, after settling $1.20 higher. U.S. oil slipped 8 cents to $87.85, after ending 73 cents higher and breaking above the 50-day moving average of $87.64.

"There is more upside potential for Brent because of a revival in the overall economic outlook," said Yusuke Seta, a commodities sales manager at Newedge Japan.

"Supporting factors are prevailing over negative factors."

Political manoeuvring intensified over an agreement to keep the U.S. economy from tumbling off the "fiscal cliff" next year as Republicans tried to wring more tax-rate concessions out of the White House on Tuesday.

"The divide between the two parties ... now appears to be just a hop, skip and jump away from a resolution being reached if recent market trajectory is anything to go by," Tim Waterer, a senior trader at CMC Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note.

"Until a deal is struck, the risk of unwinding the December gains early in the New Year remains a threat."

SIMMERING TENSION

Simmering tension in the Middle East is also keeping oil prices elevated.

Iran remained defiant on its nuclear programme ahead of planned new talks with world powers. Israel has threatened air strikes on Iran if its nuclear work is not curbed through diplomacy or sanctions, raising the spectre of a Middle East war damaging to the global economy.

Brent is approaching a resistance at $109.02 per barrel, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. U.S. oil faces a resistance zone of $88.28 to $88.37 and is expected to retrace to $86.80, he said.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks fell more than expected in the week to Dec. 14 as imports dropped and refined product stocks were mixed as processing rates rose.

Crude stocks fell by 4.1 million barrels against a forecast 1.1 million barrel drawdown in a Reuters poll. Investors are now awaiting inventory data due later in the day from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

"Oil may get additional support if the U.S. government data on stockpiles confirms what the industry data API has said," Newedge's Seta said.

U.S. gasoline and heating oil futures edged up on Thursday after rising more than 1 percent the previous day on production issues at a major U.S. refinery.

Motiva Enterprises would again halt some production at its new 325,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) crude distillation unit in Port Arthur, Texas, for more repairs. (Reporting by Manash Goswami; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)


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